Cannabis M&A Didn’t Vanish. It’s Just Not Happening In Public

OG article by Javier Hasse

January 21, 2026

Cannabis mergers and acquisitions continue despite limited public visibility, driven by private deals amid regulatory uncertainty and market pressures. Expectations of federal rescheduling in 2026 have sparked renewed interest, potentially easing IRS Section 280E tax burdens and improving cash flows. However, public multistate operators face equity compression, with cash deals dropping sharply in 2025 per Viridian Capital Advisors. Consultant Mitchell Osak predicts no major public M&A wave, noting consolidation often occurs through business closures, license inactivations, and attrition rather than mergers. In Canada, active licenses stabilized without significant M&A-driven changes. Rescheduling to Schedule III would not fully resolve banking access, credit availability, or equity entry barriers, and poor-performing businesses would remain challenged. Advisor Seth Yakatan highlights ongoing private consolidation via all-stock transactions, earnouts, and creative financing. Examples include Vireo Health’s acquisitions funded by equity raises and discounted notes. Private operators, with stronger balance sheets, drive rationalization by absorbing excess capacity. Overall, 2026 deals are expected to be smaller, lower-risk, and discreet, reshaping the industry through quiet restructuring rather than headline-grabbing public mergers.