Sentencing Commission Proposes Major Changes to Federal Guidelines That Could Expand Probation, Reshape Career Offender Rules and Reduce Impact of Prior Marijuana Convictions

OG article by Anthony Martinelli

February 9, 2026

The United States Sentencing Commission has proposed significant amendments to federal sentencing guidelines for 2026. These include greater judicial discretion to choose probation or split sentences instead of imprisonment, expanding Zones B and C in the sentencing table to allow probation with confinement for higher guideline ranges, particularly in lower criminal history categories. The changes emphasize deliberate consideration of sentencing options, viewing probation as a punitive measure tailored to individual needs and rehabilitation. For career offender provisions, the proposal shifts from a categorical approach to specific federal crime lists and evaluations of state convictions based on conduct or labels. Adjustments to "crime of violence" definitions could allow rebuttals if offenses involved little jail time, no serious injury, or recklessness rather than intent. For "controlled substance offense," options limit applicability to certain federal statutes or require substantial prior prison terms, potentially excluding many state marijuana convictions from triggering enhancements. This could affect guidelines for firearms, explosives, money laundering, and immigration cases. The Commission seeks public comments until March 18, with final proposals to Congress in May and possible retroactive application to reduce sentences for those impacted by prior marijuana convictions. The aim is increased judicial flexibility and reduced rigid incarceration.